BLOG: What's this about a low in the Gulf next week?

HOUSTON – During October, we look to the Bay of Campeche for tropical development in the Gulf. Some of our computer models have been indicating an area of low pressure developing there by Tuesday next week. 

There is currently a weak low pressure area east of Veracruz that is associated with the cold front that moved through the Gulf on Monday. This is a common occurrence when fronts move into the region, due to the geography between the land and Gulf. 

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There is also a disturbance in the Eastern Pacific, south of Mexico, that has a high chance of becoming the next tropical storm in that basin. This disturbance, should it develop, will help spread tropical moisture across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. Combining moisture, warm ocean water and a preexisting low pressure would seem to provide a good chance of this low becoming a Tropical Storm.

The other major weather feature that will decide the future of the Campeche low is the next significant front, forecast to move into the Gulf by Tuesday. One possibility is the front will overtake the weak low and we would have a typical wintertime extratropical low moving east with the front towards Florida.

Another possibility, and the one I am leaning towards Friday morning, is the low will be established when the front merges with it and the front will help it intensify. When this happens, we can have tropical storm-like conditions on the southeast sector of the storm ahead of the front and extratropical conditions on the northwest sector behind the front. If it reaches tropical storm-strength it would most likely be a subtropical storm.

With any of the three scenarios there is no direct threat to our coast. Should the storm get strong enough, we could see higher than normal waves and tides at the coast the latter half of next week.