Messy Monday coming!

Enjoy the cold, dry weekend as we start next week wet!

I know what you’re thinking: It’s Friday, just let me get through the cold weekend in peace without worrying about my start to the work week!

I get it. Our current cold snap continues snapping right through tomorrow and Sunday as lows drop to the upper 20 and low 30s tomorrow morning and 30s Sunday. Wind chills, even with light 5 mph winds, will make the mornings feel even colder. Here’s my 10-Day forecast:

10 Day Forecast

You’ll notice there is not much rain the next 10 days, but come Monday a low pressure system now out west will make its way into Texas. Right now, that low is being blocked by the high which will bring us the sunny, quiet weather this weekend. But that high slides away toward the Gulf, allowing the low to eject out of Mexico right toward Houston bringing rain.

Here’s the current set up and I drew in the arrows to illustrate the plan:

The Low moves toward Mexico and then Monday moves over Texas

When that low moves over us, a rainy Monday ensues! Pretty much all day with an 80% chance right now. Here are both the American and European models:

courtesy tropicaltidbits.com
courtesy weathermodels.com

They are in excellent agreement and as far as rain amounts, a solid 1-2″ is forecast:

1-2" rain for Monday, courtesy NOAA

Severe weather?

Right now, excessive rain is not forecast as the system will be on the move, but any all day rain could bring enough rain to cause minor street flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has not put our region under any kind of risk or threat level, but that could change. That low could pull in more moisture than expected off the gulf. In addition, the low will provide a southwest wind while the high to the east will provide a southeast wind--that is called wind shear and part of the recipe for tornadoes. Whenever winds are from two different directions that can cause a spin. So I’ll have a close eye on this event as it unfolds.

In the meantime, enjoy the weekend, stay warm and don’t worry about the weather! I just don’t want you caught off guard when you’re back to school and work and wondering “where the heck did all this rain come from?” Now you know!

Frank

Email me and follow me on Facebook!


About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, consumer and business news and local crime coverage.