Tropics already? Here we go!

NHC Forecasters are already eyeing that yellow X!
NHC Forecasters are already eyeing that yellow X!

HOUSTON – Just consider this a heads up, but the social media universe is all a-twitter over that yellow X in the middle of the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40% chance to develop tropically over the next 5 days. You can see a pretty good cloud area at the top right of this satellite pic:

Continental US - Blue - Visible

And if you follow the NHC’s guidance, then there is the chance the system drifts into warmer water the next two days and that is what gives it the opportunity to become a subtropical low:

40% chance for development in the orange area

Saying all that, both the NHC and the GFS Model (American Model) have this system being picked up by a hostile front and moving away to the northeast. Here’s the GFS:

GFS model courtesy of

So no worries, but a heads up that the season is already flaring up and it isn’t even June 1st! Incidentally, the official NOAA Hurricane Season Forecast for 2021 comes out tomorrow, May 20. I expect that they’ll predict a busy season like everyone else, but we’ll pass it on to you as soon as we get it!


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About the Authors:

KPRC 2's chief meteorologist with three decades of experience forecasting Houston's weather.

Amanda Cochran is an Edward R. Murrow award-winning journalist. She specializes in Texas features, social media news and local crime.