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Frank's Weather or Not: Eye on the Tropics!

HOUSTON – While the Pacific is on FIRE right now (Aloha, Erick and Flossie!) the Atlantic remains 'generally' quiet. Why?

Still a lot of Saharan Dust, i.e. Dry Air, for developing storms to overcome and the wind shear, which tears them up, is still strong across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.

However, if you've been watching, you know that the National Hurricane Center is eyeing two potential developments.

The first, closest to us, is not going to do much--perhaps bring a rainy day to the Bahamas or south Atlantic states.

The second, way out in the Atlantic, now has a very good chance to develop into a depression or storm by the weekend.

 

If this survives, a Major Cat 3 or 4 hurricane is possible next week. Right now, the models indicate that this stays away from the US coast. Why? The High Pressure to our northwest and a 'trough' of lower pressure on the East Coast sets up an upper air wind flow that blocks the storm:

 

You can see that a week from Saturday, the storm is at sea and stays that way:

 

The above is the GFS American model. But the Euro is in good agreement:

 

As good as the models are, and as well as they agree, we know that these forecasts are just that---and this far out, only guidance. The bottom line is, the Atlantic has been asleep for the better part of the hurricane season, but the giant is beginning to stir! We're on it!

Frank

Email me with comments or questions!