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Frank's Weather or Not: Tropical Flare-Up, Heat Flare-Up!

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HOUSTON – Tropical is the word of the day.

Thanks to Charles Lambert for the Lake Livingston Water Spout photo! We had a lot of LL viewers send these in as thunderstorms rumbled across the area Sunday. As storms moved across from the southwest, those winds met southeast winds and that caused the spin. The only difference between a water spout and tornado is that the former is over water rather than land!

Speaking of thunderstorms, our "hot, humid, chance of a thunderstorm" forecast that we all know and love is back in full force this week as we move from the July Fry to Ugh-ust!

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Some chance of a storm each day with temperatures pretty average for this time of year.

As Tropical funnels danced across Lake Livingston yesterday, a tropical invest showed up in the Lesser Antilles with a 0% chance to develop the next two days and 10% the next five:

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The National Hurricane Center draws a forecast cone toward the Bahamas.

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There's a lot of land between where this is now and the Florida Straits, so between that and light Saharan Dust, it won't be easy to develop much. I can't find any models that are too interested in this yet. The QPF forecast for rainfall over Florida the next week brings in 3-5" across the Peninsula.

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What I think is worth keeping an eye on is just coming off Africa and I circled it below:

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If it can beat the dry air/dust to the north and hang together as a circulation there might be something to it in a week. But there's a lot of dust:

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In the meantime, the American model is hinting at ANOTHER cold front toward the end of NEXT week (August 8-10 timeframe). That is way out there so don't bet grandma's last dime on it, but we've been there once this summer and these patterns have a way of sticking around! I'll keep you posted!

Have a great, cool week!

Frank


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