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Frank's Weather or Not: What to know about the tropics

Good news from the tropics as two factors continue to inhibit development in the Atlantic basin: wind shear and Saharan dust! The National Hurricane Center expects nothing in the immediate future:

Or in the long range (the next 5 days):

And I don't see anything on the models coming for at least that long if not the next 10 days. Two primary reasons for the lack of tropical development are Saharan dust which promotes dry air:

You can add that to the strong wind shear over the Gulf, Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. The map below is a spaghetti mess, so just look at the RED lines -- that is the strong wind which tears apart any developing systems:

The Pacific, on the other hand, got going yesterday with Tropical Depression 1-E, likely to become Tropical Storm Alvin, but moving safely away from the Mexican Coast.

The cluster of clouds you see behind that one may well follow suit. There does seem to be a see-saw effect that when the Pacific is busy, the Atlantic is not and vice versa. Heads up on next week, by the way: Tuesday and Wednesday look to be very wet producing a localized flood threat but drying up just in time for the Fourth of July (although the parks may be awfully muddy). I'm watching it so stay weather aware!!

Cheers,

Frank