HOUSTON – The First Hurricane Forecasts are rolling out this week with Accuweather, WeatherBell and The Weather Research all looking at, generally, normal or slightly below normal seasons for 2019.
The average is for 12 Tropical storms to form, 6 of those become hurricanes and 2 become MAJOR hurricanes which is a Category 3,4 or 5. There are plenty of atmospheric signals on which these forecasts are based with two of the most popular being water temperature and El Nino.
The Pacific water is plenty warm and a weak El Nino is forecast to last through the fall. That's important because the warm El Nino water equates to warm, rising air which creates wind. That wind moves across Central America and helps hinder storms developing in the Caribbean.
Here's that forecast....just follow the red line and note that it's ABOVE the 0° line.
So that's a plus for fewer storms. And the deep tropical Atlantic temperatures are slightly cooler than normal, although not much. Notice the blue off of Africa.
So that said, here are the different forecasts so far:
ACCUWEATHER 12-14 Storms 5-7 Hurricanes 2-4 Major Hurricanes
WeatherBell 11-14 Storms 5 Hurricanes 1 Major Hurricane
Weather Research Center 10-15 Storms 4-7 Hurricanes 0-2 Major Hurricanes
Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University will release his forecast tomorrow, April 4th.
Speaking of forecasts, the weekend is gearing up for a Saturday Soaker. The NWS is raising awareness that training storms could create urban flooding on Saturday. The QPF, or how much rain we will get, predictions are generally manageable, but a training effect can double the amounts. These graphics predict 2-3"....but if training storms bring 4-6" then there will be high water, especially on feeders and low lying roads. This is NOT a major flood forecast event, but do be weather aware this weekend. Here are the graphics:
And this one:
Our forecast is right here.
And a proud shoutout: Ashley and Michael Cordray debut their national fixer-upper show on the DIY network this weekend! I've known Ashley's parents for twenty years and we're all very excited for their success as they restore Galveston's grandest homes to their former glory! Television is a challenging, but rewarding career and I'm very happy to congratulate these fine pioneers and thank them for bringing the love and attention to the Island that it so deserves. Good luck, you two!!
Speaking of beaches, I'm finding a beach to relax on starting tomorrow, so I won't have a blog Friday. Have a safe weekend and remember: Turn Around, Don't Drown!