Tropical disturbance -- Will it develop into storm?

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There haven't been any drastic changes with this large area of low pressure since Thursday.

There still isn't a clearly-defined center of circulation. The winds are 25 to 30 mph with a surface pressure of 1006 mb from Belize into the Gulf north of Yucatan. While disorganized now, this system, should it develop an organized center, could quickly reach tropical storm strength.

This is an image of the Gulf of Mexico heat content. A number greater than 60 is correlated with intensification. A number greater than 100 correlates with rapid intensification. On Friday afternoon, the number was between 50 and 75. This area in the east central Gulf is associated with the loop current.

Here is what is interesting about the forecast tracks. There aren't any steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico right now, so the low pressure will drift north the next two to three days. Notice five of the seven models all have this going to Florida after this weekend. The reason is the upper level winds will steer this east into Florida. But that isn't a guarantee. If this system remains stalled in the Gulf into early next week, the ridge of high pressure that keeps southeast Texas hot this weekend breaks down a bit and moves east. The ridge would then begin to move this system west closer to Texas. The key is seeing where this system is Monday.

Of course, we'll keep you updated.

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