HOUSTON – Another tropical disturbance is taking shape in the northwest Caribbean just east of Belize and the Yucatan of Mexico. It will move slowly west-northwest and be over land Tuesday and perhaps much of Wednesday before emerging the Bay of Campeche.
The same ridge of high pressure responsible for steering Ingrid westward into Mexico is forecast to remain north of the new disturbance at least through Thursday.
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Although current forecast models take our new disturbance towards Mexico well south of our area, an approaching frontal system from the north bears watching for changes in this track forecast.
Conditions look conducive for the disturbance to develop further once it gets over the open waters of the Gulf, where the water is warm and winds aloft are forecast to remain light.
The National Hurricane Center gives this a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm and has tasked the Air Force hurricane hunters to fly into the disturbance Wednesday afternoon to investigate.