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Tropical Storm Gustav Strengthens As It Eyes Gulf

POSTED: Thursday, August 28, 2008
UPDATED: 6:43 pm CDT August 28, 2008

Tropical Storm Gustav gained strength Thursday as it continued its deadly path toward the Gulf of Mexico, KPRC Local 2 reported Thursday.


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At 7 p.m. CDT Thursday, the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located at 17.9 north, 77.0 west or about 15 miles west of Kingston, Jamaica. The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 70 mph and was moving west at about 7 mph.

Haitian officials are reporting 51 deaths from Gustav, raising the storm's overall toll to 59.

Civil protection department director Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste said the death count increased fivefold on Thursday as news reached officials from remote areas.

At least 25 people were killed near Jacmel, on the country's southern peninsula, where Gustav came ashore Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane.

Civil protection official Jean-Michel Sabbat said most of those people were killed by landslides and falling trees in the mountains.

"Gustav is right over Jamaica right now. They're looking for 6 to 12 inches of rain, possibly 25, so a big rain-maker," KPRC Local 2 chief meteorologist Frank Billingsley said. "As this system emerges back over water tomorrow, it's likely to become a hurricane."

The storm is expected to regain strength and the hurricane center said it could become a hurricane again by Friday.

"The whole cone of uncertainty is 600 miles across and the hurricane center is emphasizing that the whole cone really has to watch out, which includes southeast Texas," Billingsley said. "The models have started to trend a little more to the west as opposed to Biloxi, Mobile. They started to come back toward central Louisiana and even southeast Texas. It's expected to hit somewhere in this cone as a category 3 with 120 mph winds."

"It's going to turn into a powerful hurricane," KPRC Local 2 meteorologist Anthony Yanez said. "It looks like a category 3. Keep in mind when we talk about the uncertainty of exactly where it's headed, where it's going to make landfall, they did a study over the last 10 years on the intensity forecast of these storms. For a category 3 for example, they found that sometimes it can be as strong, they can have the intensity off and it can be a category 5. It can be two (categories) stronger or two (categories) weaker, so we're looking at either a category 3, possibly a 5 or even a category 1 when it makes landfall."

Oil workers began leaving their rigs and New Orleans drew up evacuation plans as forecasters warned the storm could plow into the U.S. Gulf coast as a major hurricane.

Gustav will soon be a problem for the United States.

"Sunday it looks like it's going to move into the Gulf of Mexico as a category 2 or a category 3 storm," Yanez said.

It is expected to make landfall on Tuesday or Wednesday.

"Where this storm could end up on land in the United States could be anywhere from possibly Port O'Connor, maybe Corpus Christi if it goes a little more to the left, or all the way into the Florida panhandle," Yanez said. "While the center of this forecast cone goes right into the heart of Louisiana, it would be very easy to see this move off to the left or move off to the right."

Yanez said he thinks it will likely go into Louisiana, but it could go into Texas.

"I honestly think this is going to be the path of least resistance," Yanez said. "I've got a 400-mile swath here from southeast Texas, from Port O'Connor all the way to New Orleans. If it hits anywhere near Sabine Pass off to the east, our effects are going to be minimal. We might have some gusty winds, but we'll be on the clean side of this hurricane."

The storm is expected to strengthen because of the warm water in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Hanna Forms

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Hanna has formed northeast of the northern Leeward Islands in the Atlantic.

Hanna, the eighth tropical storm of the Atlantic season, had top sustained winds near 40 mph Thursday.

Hanna could produce rainfall of 1 to 4 inches across parts of the Leeward Islands. It's too soon to say if Hanna will affect the United States.

For continued weather updates, keep an eye on KPRC Local 2 and www.Click2Houston.com.

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