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Tropical Storm Gustav Heads Toward Gulf

Death Toll Reaches 22

POSTED: Wednesday, August 27, 2008
UPDATED: 8:08 pm CDT August 27, 2008

Tropical Storm Gustav headed for the Gulf of Mexico and was expected to strengthen into a monster storm before it makes landfall in the United States, KPRC Local 2 reported Wednesday.


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At 7 p.m. CDT Wednesday, the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was located at 19.0 north, 75.0 west or about 65 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba. The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph as the storm moved west-northwest at about 7 mph.

Gustav was a category 1 hurricane when it made landfall in Haiti on Tuesday.

"It's a tropical storm because it's over land," KPRC Local 2 meteorologist Anthony Yanez said. "Whenever you take a hurricane, you put it over land, it loses its heat source, its fuel. It runs out of gas. But once it gets back over the warm Caribbean waters, most likely late Thursday or Friday, it will be a hurricane again."

The death toll from Gustav is up to 22 in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Haiti's civil protection director Marie Alta Jean-Baptiste said mudslides and flooding have killed at least 14 people in Haiti, including a young girl who was swept off a bridge by floodwaters.

In the neighboring Dominican Republic, eight people have died in a landslide -- including two infants.

Civil defense director Luis Luna Paulino said Wednesday that the eight "were all members of a family that had taken shelter since Tropical Storm Fay and left to go home because they thought the danger had passed."

Gustav is headed for the Gulf of Mexico.

"There's a huge margin of error -- 300 miles when you get five days out. What we need to remember -- we're expecting a storm in the Gulf -- about 115 mph by Saturday afternoon. Where it goes from there -- northern Gulf to western Gulf is anybody's ballgame, really," KPRC Local 2 chief meteorologist Frank Billingsley said.

The storm is expected to strengthen because of the warm water in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

If Gustav does threaten the Texas coast, it would not hit until next week.

"There's no reason to panic right now, but there is time to get prepared," Yanez said. "It looks like it's going to be making landfall Tuesday or Wednesday, maybe Thursday at the latest if it does slow down."

In New Orleans, city officials aren't taking any chances. They're drawing blueprints of how to evacuate the city if necessary.

New Orleans plans to institute a mandatory evacuation order should a Category 3 or stronger hurricane be within 72 hours of the city. People who might need help evacuating were being advised to call the city's 311 information number.

At a suburban store, employees said portable generators, gasoline cans, bottled water and batteries are selling briskly.

Since Katrina, billions of dollars have been spent to improve the levee system.

Experts say the city and surrounding region are safer from hurricanes, but they say the improved levee protection is incomplete and holes remain.

Katrina sent approximately 150,000 evacuees to Houston.

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett said there would not be a replay this time.

"Within three weeks of Katrina hitting, then Rita came right at us. It was a good thing to do at the time, but no, that won't occur. Evacuations are inland," Emmett said.

The county's emergency management center has not yet been activated.

Gov. Rick Perry said state, county and city emergency managers are all watching Gustav, but it's still too early to know what the storm will do.

"Let's all be watching and praying for a tropical storm, but preparing for a Category 4 storm," Perry said.

Houston is not currently in the National Hurricane Center's forecast cone, but it could be later.

"The four- and five-day forecast cone has shifted off to the right, but keep in mind that the four- and five-day forecast can be off. All it takes is a little turn to the left and very easily that cone could shift on in this general direction. Keep in mind it could also be out in Florida," Yanez said.

A high-pressure ridge that is expected to build over Florida will determine where Gustav goes.

"If everything stays status quo as we move toward the weekend and also Labor Day, the high would steer it (Gustav) a little closer to Louisiana. If this high strengthens, what will happen is it would push Gustav a little bit closer to southeast Texas. If it weakens and is a little bit farther off to the east, it will move it more into the Florida panhandle. It's really dependent on Labor Day with where this high pressure is," Yanez said.

Galveston will start to feel swells from Gustav on Sunday.

"Once this enters into the Gulf of Mexico, it's going to start to pick up that water along the coastline. The first effects of this storm, whether it hits us or not, will be on Sunday out in Galveston," Yanez said.

For continued weather updates, keep an eye on KPRC Local 2 and www.Click2Houston.com.

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