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February Republican primary cheat sheet

An early look at each race on the calendar

Author: By Peter Hamby CNN Political Reporter
Published On: Feb 01 2012 12:36:17 PM CST  Updated On: Feb 01 2012 12:36:35 PM CST
Republicans

TAMPA, Florida (CNN) -

With the Florida primary behind us, the Republican presidential race is set to go national.

Newt Gingrich, who was soundly defeated by Mitt Romney in Tuesday's vote, is now casting the race as a battle for delegates that will last until the Republican National Convention in August. However, the former House Speaker is about to hit a wall.

Seven states will vote in February, and Romney is positioned to do well in most of them.

Romney's conservative challengers -- Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul -- have less money and resources and will be forced to pick their battles before March when almost two dozen states will cast ballots.

Crucially, though, most of those states are holding small caucuses that won't officially award delegates on the night of the contest. Although the news media will make unofficial delegate estimates for most of these states, the state parties won't actually allocate the binding delegates that Romney's rivals are so eager to hoard.

Instead, those delegates will be sorted out at district and state conventions later this spring and summer, when the nomination fight could be over.

As for the states that do award binding delegates in February, Romney is in control, which leaves his rivals gunning for a series of symbolic victories as they try to gain traction among conservatives before March. 

"A lot of this month is a big perception contest more than anything," said John Brabender, a senior adviser to Santorum. "It's all about showing momentum."

Here is a cheat sheet for February, the next phase in the GOP race:

Nevada caucuses (February 4)

Delegates at stake: 28, awarded proportionally

If Gingrich is looking to recover his footing after his thumping in Florida, this is not the place to start.

Nevada 2012 is shaping up to be a lot like Nevada 2008, when Mitt Romney won in blowout fashion and Ron Paul finished a distant second.

Romney was aided in that race by a sizable Mormon turnout that broke almost entirely for the former Massachusetts governor, a prominent member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints.

A quarter of caucus-goers in 2008 were Mormon, and Romney won 95% of them.

Romney made several early visits to Nevada last year and has a built a well-oiled campaign operation there.

He is widely perceived to be the Nevada frontrunner, and with just four days until the vote, the forecast is not expected to change.

And just to be safe, Romney is already running a tough television ad against Gingrich calling attention to his Freddie Mac ties.

"It is certainly Romney's lead at this stage," said former Nevada Gov. Robert List, a member of the Republican National Committee. "They have had a very aggressive ground game out here that really goes back to its roots four years ago -- the same with Ron Paul."

Paul has planted a flag in Nevada and is expected to outperform his 2008 finish. His campaign's ability to organize supporters is well-documented, and smaller-turnout caucus states like Nevada represent Paul's best chance to collect delegates.

Even though longtime Gingrich benefactor and casino magnate Sheldon Adelson calls Las Vegas home, the former House speaker has an uphill climb in the Silver State.

Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond told CNN that Nevada is far and away the "toughest" state for them in February.

Santorum is campaigning in Nevada, but he is not devoting serious resources to the state.

Who has the edge? Romney

Maine caucuses (February 4-11) 

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