Early Tuesday morning Houston time Typhoon Rammasun made landfall in a rural province of the eastern Philippines with winds up to 115 mph.
The typhoon is moving toward the west-northwest and will cross right over the densely populated Manila metropolitan area. While the winds will likely be down some, it is still forecast to have winds of 80 to 90 mph and produce torrential rains.
The largest factor in how much damage a typhoon or hurricane creates is the degree of development in the region at risk, and Manila is one of the densest populated areas globally. The hilly to mountainous terrain will help focus flash floods and mudslides as Rammasun impacts the area. I hope the people living in the path have taken prudent action in advance.
On Wednesday morning Rammasun is expected to leave the Philippines and move over the warm water of the South China Sea. The typhoon is forecast to make two more landfalls -- next either on the island of Hainan or the southernmost mainland of China on Friday, then into mainland Asia near the border of China and Vietnam Saturday.
Closer to home the Atlantic basin remains quiet. Our forecast models continue to forecast an environment unfavorable for tropical storm development for at least the next week.