Houston's Bush Intercontinental Airport hasn't gotten measurable rainfall since June 19. This weekend may change that, as a wave of tropical moisture migrates from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast.
There will be a very noticeable shift in Houston's weather pattern as atmospheric moisture returns to the area through the weekend. The air will be much more humid, more typical of a Houston summertime pattern. The higher humidity signals the return of abundant fuel for rain and storms in the area.
Sunday and Monday look like the wettest days to come, as a trough axis moves over coastal areas. Rainfall amounts are difficult to predict at this point, but widespread totals over an inch are certainly possible. The highest rainfall totals will probably be south of Interstate 10, close to the coast.
As the system moves toward Texas, there is a small chance that it could organize slightly before it encounters land. The atmosphere over the western Gulf will become more conducive to tropical development as the weekend progresses. However, there will be very little time for development into anything stronger than a tropical depression before the low pressure system moves over land and loses any additional opportunity to strengthen.
With the threat of significant development minimal, the biggest impact to Texas will be heavy rain.
The anticipated rain is great news as southeast Texas' drought continues to worsen. The latest update of the U.S. drought monitor shows moderate to severe drought over much of the area, with expanding areas of extreme drought northwest of Houston and along the Gulf Coast from Brazoria County to the south.
You can keep up with this weekend's rain at click2houston.com/weather.