As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” A stalling cold front will move into Southeast Texas later Thursday and stick around through Saturday. On top of this, we’ll have a series of low pressure disturbances (they create rain) moving in and out starting this afternoon. This is a similar weather pattern to what we saw two weeks ago when Sugar Land and South Houston flooded. The difficulty with this forecast is the timing and placement of the disturbances, and how far south the cold front sinks. In general we’ll receive 1-2 inches of rain starting tonight lasting through Saturday night. However, 5-6 inches in possible and if we get that in a short amount of time in the city, we will flood. Other severe weather concerns are hail, damaging winds and of course a lot of dangerous lightning.
And just like two weeks ago the models as of right now are keeping most of the heavy rain north and east of Houston. We all know how that ended up… Conroe received a .10” of rain while Sugar Land got hammered with 8” and Hobby airport 6”.
From experience, weather models have a hard time reconciling the ultra small nuances of moisture content, shear and instability on a neighborhood to even city level. This means all of us have to be on guard starting Thursday night.
Check click2houston.com before you drive home from work today to see if any thunderstorms are in your path for your drive. And make sure you watch Frank Thursday night to see what is developing for early Friday morning and how the models are changing. And I promise the models will change. I’ll be back Friday morning to keep you and your family safe if severe weather breaks out.