HOUSTON -

On Thursday morning the National Hurricane Center has raised the odds of the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche developing into a Tropical Storm during the next several days to 30%.  Another way of putting it is there is a 70% chance it won't develop.

Conditions in a small area over the southern Bay of Campeche are reasonably favorable – already have a low present just east of Veracruz, warm seawater and lots of showers and thunderstorms.  Working against our disturbance is wind shear – winds down low are from the east while high up in the atmosphere they are from the north.  This shear causes the thunderstorms to be displaced to the east of the low center and is a major inhibitor for further development.

Since it is close to land already, it will likely move ashore near or just north of Veracruz in the next day or so. By this weekend the shear is forecast to become even stronger while drier air streams into the gulf, so the window of opportunity for a tropical storm forming is small.

Development or not, heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides throughout southern Mexico are the main risk. There is no chance of this system coming Houston way.