What makes this forecast different?
The Weather Research Center, based in Houston, has a unique way of making its seasonal hurricane forecast. It uses a model called the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI), which uses the solar cycle to predict the risk for coastal residents each hurricane season. The model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun as well as the global circulation pattern of the earth. These influences are reflected in the 11.1-year sun spot cycle.
Here is the Weather Research Center's forecast for this year:
The WRC has a 60% chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall from Louisiana to Key West, Florida. Texas has a 30% chance of getting hit (51% is average).
The WRC has been making these forecasts since 1985, and according to it, there have only been three years out of 27 years when a tropical cyclone did not make landfall in the section of the U.S. Coast with the highest risk.
The WRC office is at the Weather Museum and always makes for a fun field trip, especially if you love weather.